“If one were to attempt to identify a single problematic aspect of human reasoning that deserves attention above all others, the confirmation bias would have to be among the candidates for consideration.”          – Raymond S. Nickerson, Department of Psychology, Tufts University

I don’t know about you but I like to think that I’m rational and think well. In most circumstances, that’s true but some recent insights from psychological research show that there are many weaknesses that undermine the rationality of human thinking. In this five part series, I’ll be exploring five concepts that affect how people think and process information: confirmation bias, availability heuristic, fundamental attribution error, selection bias, and anchoring. I came across some of these concepts back in grad school but others I’ve picked up in reading books and articles, especially those concerning behavioral economics. In reading through these posts, I hope you’ll join me in thinking through these challenges and beginning efforts to overcome them.

Confirmation bias: a long established principle in psychology research

Confirmation bias can be viewed as a type of information behaviour; it describes the tendency of people to seek out information that confirms what they already think or believe. In politics, that could mean only reading newspapers and writers that voice your opinions. In academic research, it might mean conducting a less through complete literature review lest one find articles that contradict one’s findings. To put it more generally, I’ll quote from Raymond Nickerson author of a 1998 academic article on the topic (see references below):

Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a hypothesis in hand….

Nickerson’s lengthy article cites over a hundred other studies exploring this concept further but it is reasonable to summarize the article as demonstrating that this is a real phenomenon (though Nickerson poses the question of whether it is always a problem). Depending on your context, bowing to confirmation bias may seem like a good idea if your goal is getting along rather than getting it right. In a professional context, that is a recipe for errors and mistakes.  The confirmation bias is also faster – indeed, cognitive biases are also known as cognitive shortcuts – than fully thinking through the problem. The more important a problem or question becomes, the more important it becomes to overcome this bias and really stretch ourselves. Imagine having a meeting to discuss which project proposals should be authorized only to have the chair of the committee express a view with nobody contradicting it. The desire to seek out consensus can limit our ability to actually think through problems and seek out other possibilities.

Practical Steps To Overcome Confirmation Bias

• Seek disconfirmation: What evidence could prove this wrong?
• Play the Devil’s Advocate: Give me somebody in the group permission to contract and question others. Such questioning should be informed by evidence.
• Slow down: Confirmation bias is more likely if you are rushed, so try to approach the question in a slower way.

There has also been some research (see below) in how specific professionals can overcome the bias and the effects it can have on the quality of decisions. After all, that is ultimately why this bias is important; it can lead to poor quality decisions.

References:

Arunachalam, Vairam and Wheeler, Patrick R. “The Effects of Decision Aid Design on the Information Search Strategies and Confirmation Bias of Tax Professionals.” Behavioral Research In Accounting, 2008

Jones, Martin and Sugden, Robert. “Positive confirmation bias in the acquisition of information.” Theory and Decision, 2001

Nickerson, Raymond. “Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises.” Review of General Psychology, 1998

Parmley, Meagan Carleton. “The effects of the confirmation bias on diagnostic decision making.“  Phd Thesis, Drexel University, 2006

Shefri, Hersh. “How Psychological Pitfalls Generated the Global Financial Crisis,” May 2009 (Note: confirmation bias is one factor of several considered in this paper)